New PDF release: A Theory of Case-Based Decisions

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By Itzhak Gilboa, David Schmeidler

ISBN-10: 0521003113

ISBN-13: 9780521003117

Gilboa and Schmeidler supply a brand new paradigm for modeling choice making below uncertainty. Case-based determination idea means that humans make judgements by way of analogies to earlier instances: they have a tendency to settle on acts that played good long ago in related occasions, and to prevent acts that played poorly. The authors describe the overall idea and its courting to making plans, repeated selection difficulties, inductive inference, and studying. They spotlight its mathematical and philosophical foundations and examine it to anticipated software conception in addition to to rule-based systems.

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"This textual content is a wonderful advent to optimization theory." Richard A. Chechile, magazine of Mathematical Psychology

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Extra info for A Theory of Case-Based Decisions

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We later extend the formal model to include similarity judgments between pairs of problems and acts, and even between entire cases. The decision maker is also characterized by a utility function: u : R → R. The utility function measures the desirability of outcomes. The higher is the value of this function, the more desirable is the outcome considered to be. Moreover, 5 This restriction may pose a problem in our example. It can be solved by assuming that Sarah assigns negative utility values to outcomes that Jim likes.

But it is also possible that John would not be reminded of the Korean War on his own. For our purposes, John may be described as attaching a zero similarity value to the two decision problems. Thus, while we use the suggestive term “similarity”, we think of this function as representing awareness and probability of recall as well as conscious similarity assessments. Our formulation assumes that similarity judgments cannot be negative. This may sometimes be too restrictive. For instance, Sarah may know that she and Jim always disagree about movies.

If a classical statistician rejects a hypothesis, the belief that it should be rejected is relatively objective. By contrast, a prior of a Bayesian statistician is more subjective. Indeed, another classical statistician is more likely to agree with the decision to reject the hypothesis than is another Bayesian statistician likely to adopt a prior if it differs from her own. Two Bayesian statisticians may have the same subjective prior, but if they are about to meet a third one, they have no way to convince her to agree with their prior.

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A Theory of Case-Based Decisions by Itzhak Gilboa, David Schmeidler


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